QSEP
Research Institute for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population
Aging in Canada: A Graphical Presentation: Assumptions
- Standard Assumptions
- fertility rates in all provinces and territories remain at their
2007 levels; the Canada total fertility rate in 2005 was 1,659
births per 1000 women
- mortality rates continue to fall, but less rapidly than they have;
by 2026 the assumed annual rate of decline in each age
group is 80 percent as great as during the period 1971-2001
- immigration to Canada is set at 250,000 per year, a little over the 2004-2008
average of 246,000; the provincial shares are set at their 2004-2008 averages
- emigration from all provinces and terrritories is related to the
previous year's population; for Canada the average for 2004-2008
was 0.12 percent
- interprovincial migration for all provinces and territories adjusts
such that, by 2016, inflows are equal to outflows; by that year both
are assumed equal to half the 2004-2008 average of inflows plus
outflows
- all projections are based on the use of MEDS
- No Immigration
- same as standard case except that immigration is set to zero
after 2010
- Replacement Level Fertility
- same as standard case except that fertility rates in each
province increase linearly to 2.1 by 2016
Last updated: Nov 17, 2009.
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